Tropical Cyclone Alfred lingering off the Queensland coast will “likely” turn towards the state’s south-east later this week, the Bureau of Meteorology says.
Queensland authorities have begun preparations for the possibility the that slow-moving tropical cyclone hits densely populated urban areas near Brisbane.
While tracking maps are frequently changed – particularly over the longer term – the bureau’s MetEye system shows Alfred weakening and moving slowly away from the coast in the coming days.
It would then “likely turn westward from Tuesday, moving back towards the southern Queensland coast” and Brisbane as a category two system.
“Alfred should continue moving to the south on Sunday,” the bureau said.
“From Tuesday there is increasing confidence that Alfred will track westwards towards the southern Queensland coast as the next mid-level steering ridge builds to the south.
“Much of the guidance favours landfall on Thursday along the south-east Queensland or far northern NSW coast. Environmental influences are not favourable for the system in the short term.”
The Queensland State Disaster Management Committee was meeting at midday on Sunday and was expected to provide a public briefing later in the afternoon.
It is understood authorities will urge residents to keep a close watch on developments, largely due to the potential for significant damage if a cyclone were to hit heavily populated and flood-prone parts of the state’s south-east.
It is rare – but not unheard of – for tropical cyclones to reach landfall south of the tropics.
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The closest a cyclone track has come to Brisbane was in 1990, when Tropical Cyclone Nancy tracked erratically towards the Queensland capital, before making a southward turn just off the coastline and never reaching landfall.
Tropical Cyclone Wanda – the cause of Brisbane’s historic 1974 floods – crossed the coast near K’gari and Hervey Bay. A severe tropical cyclone crossed the coast near Tweed Heads in 1954.
It is far more common for a tropical cyclone to cross the coast north of the Tropic of Capricorn and return overland to the south-east as a destructive low storm. This occurred with Cyclone Debbie in 2017.
Alfred was about 500km east of Rockhampton – which sits on the Tropic of Capricorn – on Sunday afternoon. The bureau warned of strong gale-force winds on K’gari.
It also warned that severe coastal hazards were “likely” for southern Queensland and north-east NSW.
“A large and powerful to potentially damaging easterly swell as well as abnormally high tides are developing about exposed southern Queensland beaches, and are forecast to extend to northern NSW from Monday,” the bureau said.
