What determines farmers’ climate resilience in South Asia

South Asia, home to some of the vulnerable agricultural regions, is already experiencing the harsh impacts of climate change. Rising temperatures and erratic rainfall are particularly affecting the rain-fed farming systems in Nepal, India, and Bangladesh, where over half of the population relies on agriculture for their livelihoods.

With unpredictable weather patterns and a steady decline in crop production, the need for effective climate adaptation is critical. However, smallholder farmers often living in remote areas with limited resources are the least equipped to cope with these challenges. Understanding what drives their ability to adapt is essential for developing policies that protect their livelihoods and ensure regional food security.

Published in the Journal of Geographical Sciences, a recent study brought together researchers from Tribhuvan University, the Chinese Academy of Sciences, and other regional institutions to examine the factors that shape the adaptive capacity (AC) of smallholder farmers in Nepal, India, and Bangladesh.

Led by Prof. Prem Sagar Chapagain and Dr. Linshan Liu, the study offers an in-depth analysis of how farmers across these three countries cope with climate change. Their findings provide valuable insights for policymakers to create effective climate resilience strategies in South Asia.

To uncover what drives smallholder farmers’ ability to adapt to climate change, the researchers conducted household surveys, focus groups, and interviews with 633 farming families across Nepal, India, and Bangladesh. Using principal component analysis, they identified eight key principal factors (PFs) that together explain the variation in AC across the three countries.

In Nepal, AC was strongly influenced by factors such as landholding size, participation in skill-development training, knowledge of improved seed varieties, and social networks. In India, access to crop insurance, agricultural-input information, and the flexibility to shift planting schedules were prominent. Meanwhile, Bangladesh’s farmers showed higher resilience when they had access to financial institutions, community support, and trustworthy weather forecasts.

Common across all countries were barriers like limited access to timely and reliable weather data, inadequate infrastructure, and low participation in training programs. While nearly 90% of farmers in Bangladesh and Nepal reported experiencing negative climate impacts, few had access to the resources needed to respond effectively. Notably, farmers who diversified their income sources or received remittances from abroad exhibited greater resilience, highlighting the importance of financial security and flexibility in managing climate stress.

These findings point to the need for targeted policies that address specific barriers, such as improving financial access and enhancing the availability of climate-resilient agricultural inputs.

Prof. Prem Sagar Chapagain, a researcher from Central Department of Geography, Tribhuvan University, emphasized the importance of understanding the broader socio-economic contexts of farmers’ adaptation efforts: “This study shows that adaptation isn’t just about access to resources, it’s about the networks and systems in place to help farmers use those resources effectively.

“It’s clear that farmers need more than just technical knowledge; they need access to financial services, better infrastructure, and reliable weather data, and a greater role in framing to make informed decisions. These findings should guide national and regional policies aimed at increasing resilience,” said the researcher.

The insights from this study have significant implications for both local and national policymakers. To strengthen farmers’ resilience, governments must prioritize improving access to financial services, including crop insurance, and ensure better infrastructure, especially roads and weather stations. Providing farmers with timely, accurate weather data is crucial for effective decision-making, while expanding access to agricultural extension services can boost knowledge of climate-resilient farming practices.

Additionally, supporting income diversification through rural development programs and remittances can help buffer the effects of climate shocks. Ultimately, addressing these systemic barriers will be essential for empowering farmers to adapt to the changing climate and secure their futures in the face of growing uncertainty.