Key events
Here is an analysis of the significance of the Hamilton byelection result from Severin Carrell, the Guardian’s Scotland editor.
And here is an extract.
Some voters have been visited four times by Labour canvassers and politicians: Labour MPs and MSPs flooded the constituency – in part because the UK party, from Keir Starmer downwards, knew they could not afford further humiliation at the hands of Reform.
It seemed in the final days of the campaign that Reform’s “air war” was seriously wounding Labour’s campaign: Farage revealed on Monday that a Scottish Labour councillor, a young man who had previously been chair of Glasgow University’s Labour students group, had defected to Reform. That did shock the party.
But in the event, the ground war won – to the great relief of a UK party that has just been pummelled by Reform in Runcorn and England’s recent council elections. “I think we have the better field operation and we’ve been around people’s doors,” the strategist said. “We’re hungry for the votes and people see that.”
What commentators are saying about Hamilton byelection result
Here is a round up of what some of the best commentators are saying about the Hamilton byelection result on social media.
From Rob Ford, a politics professor and elections expert, on Bluesky
Few Hamilton by-election thoughts: 1. Expectations matter – this was an area where Labour won a Westminster by-election on a massive swing less than two years ago and won in a general election less than one year ago get Labour’s victory yesterday is a massive shock given poling woes.
2. Scotland is still different – people based expectations of a 3rd place Lab finish on British polling drop but forget Labour advanced far further in Scotland than elsewhere. Labour standing still in Hamilton is actuallly consistent with Lab rise and fall in Scotland
3. The SNP haven’t rebounded – their decline over past few years hasn’t reversed, suggesting a more fragmented Scottish Parl contest coming next year
4. Reform are now a force on Scotland – 26% is easily Farage’s best ever Scottish result and while he didn’t win this time, he is still set to become a major force in Scottish politics for the first time next year
5. Scottish Tories are in deep trouble – granted, this isn’t one of the parts of Scotland where they do better but this was a dire result for them. Reform may be a more appealing option for socially conservative unionists, displacing them altogether in much of Scotland
6. Fragmentation makes things unpredictable! Only 5.5% separated first and third here. Such a narrow result could easily have broken differently and local candidates and campaigns could have made a difference.
7. This will be a massive morale boost for Labour in general & campaigns teams in particular – losing Runcorn by a tiny margin will have hurt and polling wise the picture has been uniformly grim. Pulling out a surprise win and confounding conventional wisdom will put a spring back in many steps.
From Patrick Maguire, the Times’ chief political commentator
Labour gain Hamilton. That is massive.
Squeaking through a tight three-way scrap by that sort of margin in the seat where Morgan McSweeney lives. Too on the nose.
Morgan McSweeney, Keir Starmer’s chief of staff, is Irish. But he is married to Imogen Walker, the MP for Hamilton and Clyde Valley.
After the Glasgow Garscadden by-election in 1978, Donald Dewar said: “This changes the whole psychological climate of Scottish politics.” Could surely say the same tonight.
See also: “Reform come third in Hamilton.” Yeah. Having come from nowhere to 26 per cent, five points behind the winner — in the central belt of Scotland! — with a single member of staff north of the border and nothing resembling Labour and the SNP’s activist base and ground game
From Ballot Box Scotland, a Scottish elections website, on Bluesky
Labour will certainly be pleased to win this one, but that’s a pretty close result; if you run these as uniform swings versus 2021, it only secures a total of 8 Labour constituency MSPs versus 51 for the SNP. As I’ve said before, this was must-win for Labour, but margin matters, and it’s not huge!
A sort of balance of caveats here as well: a 2.1% Labour majority, with 3.6% for Pro-Independence parties who won’t stand for the constituency in 2026, which will help the SNP. At the same time, don’t expect as high a Reform share outside the white heat of a by-election, which will help Labour.
Labour constituency vote on a national swing like this: 19.6% Labour constituency vote in most recent poll: 19% SNP constituency vote on a national swing like this: 30.9% SNP constituency vote in most recent poll: 33% Reform much further off but for top two, result consistent with national polls.
From Luke Tryl, director of More in Common UK and another elections expert, on Bluesky
Big result on lots of levels – just one by-election but: 1. SNP’s struggles from last years General Election clearly aren’t over 2. For Labour to gain is impressive even on a lower vote share 3. Reform just 1500 off a win shows their presence in Scotland is real.
Obviously the win is what sets the agenda however narrow (see Runcorn!) But worth noting while Labour’s vote is only just down from 2021 that was their worst ever Scottish results and their support it is down from close to 50% compared to seats covering the same areas in Westminster last year
Still winning a by election in (Westminster) govt isn’t easy and wins in by elections set the momentum
For the SNP this means more soul searching, they should have been in a position to capitalise on Labour discontentment but their vote share is similar to last year’s dreadful GE results (in overlapping seats). In our focus group people felt the SNP still hadn’t found their way post sturgeon
For Reform they have clearly built a credible base of support since the General Election in Scotland, making raw vote not just % gains. If (and it’s a real if given recent turmoil) they can hold it together they could be a formidable force in the Scottish Parliament next year
Further take away – We could be heading for a very messy election next year: on the sorts of swings we saw last night it’s not clear that you’d be able to form a stable Government at Holyrood.
From ITV’s political editor, Robert Peston
To an extent Labour’s Hamilton gain is about Reform again. On the eve of the poll, the SNP told me they saw the Reform surge and that it would knock Labour into third place. Instead Reform has taken share from the incumbent, the SNP, and deprived the SNP of the seat. Once again, Reform is a manifestation of “a curse on all your houses”
From Lewis Goodall from the News Agents podcast on Bluesky
Well that changes the entire feel of Scottish politics in the long run up to Holyrood elections next year. Labour GAIN in Hamilton. SNP still struggling. Lab down on % in general election but up on 2021. Strong Reform result. Tories absolutely nowhere and supplanted by them.
Result a good parable of politics across GB at the moment. Highly fragmented, highly multi party, with that fragmentation guaranteed to deliver unpredictable results and wind for parties on tiny margins.
Full results from Hamilton byelection
Here, from PA Media, are the byelection results in full.
Labour gain from SNP
Davy Russell (Lab) 8,559 (31.57%, -1.99%)
Katy Loudon (SNP) 7,957 (29.35%, -16.84%)
Ross Lambie (Reform UK) 7,088 (26.15%)
Richard Nelson (C) 1,621 (5.98%, -11.47%)
Ann McGuinness (Green) 695 (2.56%)
Aisha Mir (LD) 533 (1.97%, -0.82%)
Collette Bradley (SSP) 278 (1.03%)
Andy Brady (SFP) 219 (0.81%)
Marc Wilkinson (Ind) 109 (0.40%)
Janice MacKay (UKIP) 50 (0.18%)
Lab maj 602 (2.22%)
7.42% swing SNP to Lab
Electorate 61,485; Turnout 27,109 (44.09%, -16.62%)
2021 result: SNP maj 4,582 (12.63%) – Turnout 36,284 (60.71%)
McKelvie (SNP) 16,761 (46.19%); Lennon (Lab) 12,179 (33.57%);
Gallacher (C) 6,332 (17.45%); McGeever (LD) 1,012 (2.79%)
Starmer hails Labour victory after surprise win in Hamilton byelection for Scottish parliament
Good morning. Assuming he was not still up at 1.36am, Keir Starmer woke to good news this morning – Labour winning the byelection in Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse for the Scottish parliament. It has gained the seat with a 7.4% swing from the SNP.
This is a surprise. A week ago the SNP were press releasing a Norstat poll for the Times suggesting they were ahead by 33%, with Labour on 19% and Reform on 18%. And the bookies had the SNP in the lead too. Yesterday one firm had the SNP as firm favourites, followed by Reform, with odds of 11/1 available to anyone prepared to bet on Labour. Presumably someone has made some good money. For the rest of us, this is a welcome reminder that opinion polls, and bookies’ odds, are not always a sound guide to results, particularly in byelections.
Starmer was criticisised for not campaigning in Hamilton. But he did announce a big U-turn on the winter fuel payments while the campaign was taking place, and that may have helped get his candidate, Davy Russell, over the line.
This morning Starmer posted this message on social media.
Congratulations to @DavyRussell4HLS and the team on a fantastic victory. People in Scotland have once again voted for change.
Next year there is a chance to turbo charge delivery by putting Labour in power on both sides of the border.
I look forward to working with you.
A win is a win, and this is good news for Labour. But, as the leading psephologist John Curtice has been telling the BBC this morning, the Reform UK vote is significant too. They came from nowhere to a strong third place, with 26% of the vote. The Conservatives, on 6%, only just avoided losing their deposit.
Here is our overnight story by Libby Brooks, Rachel Keenan and Severin Carrell
I will be posting more reaction to the result, and analysis, shortly.
Here is the agenda for the day.
11am: Kemi Badenoch gives a speech where she will say she is “increasingly of the view” that the UK should withdraw from European convention on human rights.
11.30am: Downing Street holds a lobby briefing.
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